![]() ![]() They can lend it overseas a nd then it comes back to the Chinese economy in the form of export demand. And to turn that saving into demand, there’s two possibilities. China saves a very, very high proportion of its national income. ![]() Orlik : So the original sin of China’s economy and China’s unbalanced growth model is an extremely high savings rate. S o, how would you summarize the basic story of your book? Why do they need this rapid credit growth? Who’s doing the borrowing? Who’s doing the lending? ![]() A key point of it is that China has relied a lot on the build-up of debt, that is rapid growth of credit in order to fuel growth. Other topics are completely taboo a nd I’m certainly not defending Chinese authoritarianism, b ut nice point about a lot of freedom – freedom may be too generous a word – but a lot of space for policy debate. A lot of the issues you take up about the financial sector and debt and the growth model, you know, these things are actively debated. M y experience in China as well was that there really was a lot of room for debate on certain topics. But if we focus narrowly on the economics, the impression I came away with from discussions with policymakers, discussions on the ground, was that sense that people were motivated and did have an incentive to think outside the box.ĭollar : That’s a really nice point, Tom, about policy space. Clearly there are a huge number of problems with the social system. It just strikes me as a kind of very energetic and ingenious institution.Ĭ learly there’s a huge number of problems in China. F rom the reform of the interest rate system, to the reform of the exchange rate system, to the steps which they’ve taken to begin de-risking the financial system. ![]() So, if we just think about the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, I think one of the things which strikes me about the People’s Bank of China over the last fifteen years is just how much policy innovation there has been there. I t’s certainly true that the political system and the state ownership in the economy have a depressing impact, b ut my overwhelming impression from meeting with Chinese policymakers, Chinese workers, and Chinese entrepreneurs was a sense of dynamism, forward-looking optimism, and ingenuity. And I think that’s sort of an important underpinning of the China collapse pessimism or China collapse theories that implicitly inform U.S. Right? There’s just been a kind of nationwide suppression of incentives to perform – something like we saw in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s. Orlik : So, I think one of the prevailing narratives about China that we hear in the West is that because of the single – party state and because of the large presence of the state in the economy, the p olicy space and the market space is both kind of sclerotic. What are some of the things you saw that help us understand how China ha s been successful and dynamic? And you’ve seen both the best and the worst of China. I think 10 years, if I remember correctly. Thanks for having me on.ĭollar : So, you lived in Beijing for a long time. ” Today, my guest is Tom Orlik, chief economist of Bloomberg Economics and the author of the new book, “ China: The Bubble that Never Pops. Designed by Rock Salt – Forget about Boring & Non-personal pieces, you won’t find these anywhere else.Dollar : Hi, I’m David Dollar, host of the Brookings trade podcast “ Dollars and Sense.Printed and stretched in-house – Get the same Quality as a Museum (last 75 years).Proven patterns & color – Bring Life, Motivation & Happiness to your Walls.High-Quality finish – Looks the same as you see on our website.Whether you love art or just looking to decorate your home, this hand-stretched piece will instantly create a new ambience and massively impact your daily life. Please select if you would like to have an additional floating frame added.ĭesigned to resonate and spark a mix of feelings. Turn blank and depressing walls into spaces that resonate with you & your values.Īll our canvas come stretched across a wooden frame ready to hang on your wall. ![]()
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